How to Identify Value Bets
First of all, they are easily identifiable through our free tool on this page, which clearly shows you all of the value bets today that we recommend, which you can filter to find all more or less value, and higher or shorter odds.
But, to find value bets of your own, the key criteria to finding positive expected value will largely depend on your ability to calculate probability or use tools to be able to do so, among many other things.
These are 10 things that we find to be extremely important when it comes to finding EV bets for today, or in upcoming games, with speed being a crucial part of the process to avoid changing lines:
Tips to Consistently Spot Value Bets
1. The ability to calculate probability and use that for conversion of odds quickly
2. Look closely at the odds and what you deem to be the probability of an outcome to ensure there is value
3. Be knowledgeable about the sport that you are looking for value bets on
4. Keep track of recent news and information related to each specific game which could affect the probability
5. Analyse recent results and statistics
6. Look out for value on underdog bets first
7. Believe in the value of the bet
8. Be patient because value bets will not always succeed in the short term
9. Place your bets swiftly to avoid line changes
10. Monitor the odds and use odds comparisons on OddsPortal to analyse when odds have reached their highest
Overall, the key piece to the puzzle when it comes to finding value bets is acting fast. If an online bookmaker notices that they are providing players with value or other players get their first, then the odds will more than likely drop quickly.
On top of that, timing is also crucial, because you don’t want to place your bets too early when more value might be available, which is why experience will help you develop an understanding of how finding positive value bets work.
Value Bets of the Day - Best Value Betting Predictions
Value betting predictions today can be found on this page, with the selected market, chosen outcome, bookmaker, value and probability all detailed for each pick. Our value bets of the day are shown to you clearly and deliver the best value based on events happening on the day.
These value bets of the day can be used however you want, the information is completely free and at your disposal to decide which ones you choose to take advantage of.
You might be considering making combinations with our suggested football value bets for example, but in our opinion it usually makes more sense to place single bets with small stakes, simply because the odds are typically higher when it comes to value bets.
How to Find Value Bets?
Our free tool points you in the direction of all of the recommended value bets of the day based on the mathematical probability against the provided odds by betting sites throughout this page.
This page is exactly where you will find the best value bets for today, so you are in the right place!
Value Bets vs. Bookmaker Odds: Understanding the Edge
Value betting centres on exploiting discrepancies between bookmaker odds and actual probabilities. When you understand how this works, you gain a significant advantage in your betting strategy.
How Are Odds Calculated by Bookmakers?
Bookmakers employ teams that assess probabilities for sporting events, which is the foundation for odds setting. However, bookmakers must also factor in betting patterns by the public, in what becomes a balancing act for their profit margins.
This, in some cases, can lead to market inefficiency if bookmakers miscalculate probabilities or betting by the public causes the odds to skew away from true value.
These inefficiencies are what lead to value betting opportunities, and what certain players look out for.
Difference Between Implied and Real Probability
Implied probability represents what the bookmaker's odds suggest about an outcome's likelihood. For example, odds of 2.00 imply a 50% probability. Real probability, however, reflects the actual likelihood based on statistical analysis and expert assessment.
When real probability exceeds implied probability, you've found a value bet, with this discrepancy forming the cornerstone of profitable betting strategies.
Value opportunities emerge most frequently during:
- Market opening periods before odds settle
- Matches involving less popular teams or leagues
- Events where the public consensus heavily favours one outcome
- Situations with late-breaking news that hasn't been fully reflected in odds
- Lower-profile sports with less analytical coverage
What Is Expected Value (EV) and Why It Matters
Expected Value (EV) quantifies the long-term profit or loss potential of your betting decisions. By developing your understanding of EV, it will transform your betting from guesswork into mathematical strategy.
Positive Expected Value (+EV) indicates that a bet will generate profit over time. On the other hand, Negative Expected Value (-EV) suggests long-term losses. The goal of value betting is to consistently find +EV opportunities and avoid -EV situations as much as possible.
A bet with +EV by no means guarantees you profi like you would get from sure bets for example, it just indicates profitable potential across multiple similar bets. It is a concept that requires patience and discipline to be successful, and is undoubtedly a long-term play.
How to Use EV to Guide Your Betting Strategy
EV calculations help you determine both bet selection and stake sizing. Higher EV bets deserve larger stakes (within bankroll management limits), whilst marginal EV bets require smaller investments.
Focus on sports and markets where you possess superior knowledge, because your expertise in specific leagues or betting markets increases your ability to identify true probabilities accurately. If for example you prefer football betting over other sports and have a deep knowledge of the sport, we'd highly suggest this is what you should focus on.
The best way to look at it is to consider a simple coin flip scenario where a coin has a 50% chance of landing on either heads or tails, making true odds 2.00 (1/1) for either outcome.
If in this situation there was a bookmaker that was offering odds of 2.20 for heads, you've found value. The Expected Value formula can be seen below:
EV = (Potential Profit × True Probability) - (Stake × Probability of Loss)
With a £10 stake at 2.20 odds:
- Potential profit: £12
- Stake: £10
- True probability of heads: 50%
EV = (£12 × 0.5) - (£10 × 0.5) = £1
This represents a 10% return on investment, demonstrating clear value.
How to Calculate the Value of a Bet
Mathematical precision separates successful value bettors from casual punters, and by mastering these calculations, you can identify genuine opportunities.
The core Expected Value formula is:
EV = (Odds × True Probability) - 1
When EV is positive, you've found value. The higher the positive number, the greater the expected return.
Suppose you're analysing a football match where Team A has bookmaker odds of 3.50 to win, which would mean your analysis suggests Team A has a 35% chance of victory.
Calculating EV:
- Bookmaker odds: 3.50
- Your assessed probability: 35% (0.35)
- EV = (3.50 × 0.35) - 1 = 1.225 - 1 = 0.225
The positive EV of 0.225 indicates this bet offers 22.5% value above the break-even point.
Overvalue percentage represents how much value exists in any single selection, with higher percentages suggesting stronger value. However, you must also consider the reliability of your probability assessment at all times as well.
Bets showing 5-15% overvalue might offer consistent profits with lower risk. And although opportunities exceeding 20% overvalue may seem intriguing, we would suggest careful verification of those odds, simply because they might indicate calculation errors or rapidly changing circumstances that have been recognised by betting sites.
Use OddsPortal's Value Bets Tool
Completely free to use, our value betting tool automates much of the calculation process whilst identifying opportunities across multiple sports and bookmakers all in one place.
Advanced tools like ours compare odds across dozens of bookmakers simultaneously to identify discrepancies between market averages and individual bookmaker offerings, and highlight potential value opportunities for you, rather than you having to do it yourself.
The tool processes thousands of matches daily, and the comprehensive coverage we provide ensures you don't miss any profitable opportunities whilst taking the time to search for them.
Gaining a quick understanding of our tool interface will help you to maximise your betting strategy at a faster rate. The below details the key measurements we provide on our value bets page.
- Outcome: The specific bet type and selection
- Odds: Best available odds for that outcome
- Bookmaker: The specific betting site which is offering these odds
- Value: Percentage overvalue calculation
- Prob: Calculated probability based on market consensus
Why Value Betting Is Reliable for Long-Term Profits
By using our tool or identifying value for yourself, the emotional decision-making from betting is removed. Regular use of the tool helps to make betting more professional for yourself, if you prefer it to be that way, and helps you to earn larger profits in the long-term.
Even if you only bet for fun and don’t mind using emotion for decision making, it can still be beneficial to identify where value may be available to help you earn more profit.
We also recommend you check out other tools, like dropping odds or our bet calculator, which are both available on our platform and can help refine your betting approach even further.
FAQs about Value Bets
What is a Value Bet in Sports Betting?
A value bet occurs when a bookmaker’s odds suggest a lower probability than the actual likelihood of an outcome. These opportunities offer positive expected value, making them profitable over time despite individual bet outcomes.
Value betting requires accurately assessing true probabilities which is a skill that can be developed through experience and analysis, or through tools like we have on OddsPortal.
How Do I Know if a Bet Has Positive Expected Value (EV)?
Calculate EV using the formula: (Odds × True Probability) - 1. If this provides a positive result, this therefore indicates value in the odds. Our tool is there to automate these calculations for you and find you, as an example, value bets for football today, but understanding the underlying mathematics will undoubtedly improve your betting judgement.
Can Beginners Use Value Betting Successfully?
Beginners can learn value betting principles, but success requires patience and education. We would highly recommend that, if you are a beginner, to start with small stakes whilst developing probability assessment skills and to focus on familiar sports where you can evaluate factors of each individual matchup based on built up knowledge and understanding.
For example, we’d recommend that you look for tennis value bets if that is a sport you have a strong interest and knowledge about. Additionally, if you are a new player then it might be beneficial for you to sign up with some of our sports betting offers and try value betting with some extra bonus funds to get you started.
What's the Difference Between Value Bets and Sure Bets?
Value bets offer long-term profit potential through positive expected value but individual bets can lose. Sure bets (arbitrage) guarantee profit by exploiting odds differences between bookmakers, regardless of the outcome.
Sure bets require larger bankrolls and many different bookmaker accounts, but offer immediate and risk-free profits.
Are Value Bets Profitable in the Long Term?
Yes, if executed correctly because value betting relies on advantages rather than luck with emotion based betting. Consistent application of value betting principles means you will generate profit over hundreds of bets, though you might experience losses in the short-term due to the variance.
Like with any betting strategy, bankroll management and discipline are crucial for long-term success!
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